garyboone.com - GaryBoone

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DomainsData.org: GaryBoone

Title:

GaryBoone
Age:

16 years old
Alexa Rank:
Total Sites Linking In (Alexa):

13
Domain's IP Country:

United States
Status Code:

OK
IP Address:

216.239.32.21
Description:
Keywords:

garyboone.com Whois Information:

1.

Domain Name:

garyboone.com
2.

Domain Age:

16 years old
3.

Name Server 1:

ns-cloud-c1.googledomains.com
4.

Name Server 2:

ns-cloud-c2.googledomains.com
5.

Created:

Tuesday 08. August 2000
6.

Expires:

Tuesday 08. August 2017
7.

Domain Registrar:

Google Inc.

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TAG
TEXT
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On November 8, 2016, Hillary Clinton will be elected the 45th president of the United States. As sure as the sun will rise tomorrow, you can be certain of it. This fact isn’t something you’ll read about in the media for the simple reason that there’s no news in the sun rising tomorrow. The media reports contests and races, not the ordinary and obvious. So how can we be sure that Clinton winning is so obvious, given the daily barrage of head-to-head polling and pundit analysis? Simple: history and math.
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To understand why, you just need to understand a few facts about US elections and how to interpret polls.
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First, remember that presidential elections in the US are decided by the electoral college, not by popular vote. This means that there are 51 winner-take-all contests. That is, there are 50 states plus the DC in which the winner of the most votes receives all of the electoral college votes. So, for example, whoever wins the most votes in Hawaii wins all of Hawaii’s 4 votes.
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But we don’t have to consider every possible way that
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Hawaii always votes for the democratic candidate and will this year, too. Of course it’s possible that it could switch and vote republican this year. But we have no history to suggest such an outcome and no polling or news to believe it will switch this year. Similarly, California will give its 55 votes to Clinton. Texas will give its 38 votes to the Republican candidate, which is, at the moment, Trump. That just leaves a few states in which there are contests to watch because their outcomes are less certain. We call these “swing” or “toss-up” states.
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As a result, when we study how the electoral college votes can combine to exceed 270, we actually only have to consider the ways the swing state votes can combine. That fact makes the problem much simpler to analyze. It also means that there’s much more known already about the outcome than just knowing that there are 51 separate elections on November 8.
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New Hampshire is considered a swing state, but only has 4 electoral college votes. Florida has 29. This means that there are many electoral college combinations in which New Hampshire or other small swing states go Republican or Democratic. But it just doesn’t matter because Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), and Ohio (18) are so comparatively dominant.
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The small relative sizes of some of the swing states again further simplifies the problem. We can’t ignore them completely because small states could combine to outweigh a large state. But it means that there is less variation and more known in advance of the election about how it will turn out.
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Now this is where it really gets interesting. The media loves to report the close polls, but here’s some news: they’re not actually close.
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Again, there’s much more known about the outcomes than you would think from seeing the horse-race media reports and reading close polls. It turns out that their outcomes, even with close polling, aren’t actually very uncertain. Here’s why.
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A poll captures an estimate of a random variable. That is, we think there’s some true value of how a state prefers a candidate, say 52% for Clinton, but we don’t know the exact value. The poll includes an estimate of how sure we are of the result, usually loosely called the “margin of error.” Statistically, it looks like this curve, centered on 52%:
h1
GaryBoone
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1. Electoral College
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2. Swing states
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3. State Relative Sizes
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4. Cumulative Probabilities
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5. Polling Accuracy
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Summarizing What We Know
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Monte Carlo Simulation
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Onward to November 8, 2016
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About Me
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Blog Archive

garyboone.com IP Information:

1.

Ip Address:

216.239.32.21
2.

Country:

United States
3.

Status Code:

OK
4.

Region Name:

California
5.

City Name:

Mountain View
6.

Zip Code:

94043
7.

Speed test:

22.3 ms

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